AUTHORS: Sinan Jasim Hadi, Mustafa Tombul

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ABSTRACT: I A damaging flood happened last year in Hopa which is located in Artvin province northeast of Turkey. In this study, analysis of the event conducted through time series analysis of the extreme rainfall events. Trend using Mann-Kendall (MK) and Cox and Stuart tests, stationarity using Kwiatkowski–Phillips– Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) and Phillips–Perron (PP) tests, and homogeneity using Pettit, Alexanderson’s SNHT, Buishand, and von Neumann’s tests are also determined. Five distribution functions are fitted to the data: Weibull 3, Normal, Log-Normal 3, Log-Pearson 3, and Gumbel. The best fitting distribution is identified using: Chi –Square, and Kolmogorov-Smirnov which then utilized in constructing intensity - duration – frequency (IDF) curve. A formula developed based on the IDF curve. The developed formula used for calculating the return periods of the flood event observations. Extreme rainfall events for all durations are found stationary without significant trend and homogenous. The best fitting distribution found is Gumbel. The developed formula promotes high correlation 0.994 between the predicted and the observed intensities. A return period of 211 years belonging to 4 hours’ storm duration is the highest calculated return period for the flood records using the developed formula. The intensity of the duration of 24 hours which causes the flood found to have a 41 years return period. Intensities of the durations ≤ 4 hours of the flood event found less than the records of the extreme events observed in 1988 while for the durations > 4 hours are higher.

KEYWORDS: hopa, intensity-duration-frequency, rainfall, Gumbel, flood, trend analysis, stationarity

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